Holiday Kickoff Arrives Amid Cooling Confidence

Black Friday no longer sends crowds rushing out after Thanksgiving dinner, but it remains the busiest in-store shopping day of the year and the traditional starting point for the holiday retail season. This year’s launch comes as U.S. consumer confidence slid in November following the recent federal government shutdown, weaker hiring trends and persistent inflation, according to new data from The Conference Board.

Despite that backdrop, retail analysts say shoppers have continued spending even while expressing pessimism about the economy. Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams noted that consumers often claim conditions are poor, yet their purchasing patterns remain steady heading into the holidays.

Early Morning Crowds and Cautious Spending

At Macy’s flagship store in New York City, a steady flow of early morning customers searched for deep discounts in clothing, footwear, linens and cosmetics. Footwear proved one of the busiest departments, with markdowns between 40 and 50 percent. The atmosphere, however, lacked the frenzied pace of previous years.

Shoppers described navigating unpredictable prices, driven in part by President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies and the lingering effects of multi year inflation. Veronica Nam, 68, picked up sneakers for her husband and bedding at half price but said she plans to delay most gift buying until after Christmas. “Food is very expensive,” she said, pointing to the challenge of managing household budgets.

Meanwhile, 19 year old Queens resident Nicholas Menasche said he would spend roughly the same amount as last year, around $1,200, while visiting Macy’s and Best Buy for clothes, shoes and video games. He described Black Friday as a familiar annual tradition.

Retailers Navigate Tariffs and Rising Costs

Retailers spent much of the year adjusting to volatile import tariffs, particularly on goods from China. Some accelerated shipments to avoid higher duties, while others absorbed costs rather than pass them on to customers. Market research firm Circana reported that 40 percent of all general merchandise sold in September cost at least 5 percent more than earlier in the year.

The impact has been especially pronounced in categories that rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing. Circana found that 83 percent of toys sold in September were priced at least 5 percent higher. The Toy Association notes that nearly 80 percent of toys sold in the U.S. are imported from China, a sector that has been repeatedly affected by tariff adjustments this year.

Strong Traffic and Online Growth

Despite pricing pressures, many retailers and mall operators reported solid momentum heading into Black Friday. At the Mall of America in Minnesota, foot traffic in recent weeks exceeded pre pandemic levels, according to Jill Renslow, the mall’s chief business development and marketing officer. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong,” she said.

Online shopping growth has also surpassed expectations. Adobe Analytics found that consumers spent $79.7 billion between Nov. 1 and Nov. 23, a 7.5 percent increase from last year and ahead of Adobe’s projected 5.3 percent rise. Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts holiday retail sales to grow 3.6 percent from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, compared with a 4.1 percent increase last year.

“Clearly, consumers feel on edge,” said Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer. “But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”