Large French analysis tracks adults over four years
Adults who received at least one dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine had a lower risk of death from all causes compared with unvaccinated individuals, according to a major new study conducted in France. The findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccines are not associated with increased long-term mortality and may instead offer broader protective benefits.
The research examined health outcomes over nearly four years following the peak of vaccination campaigns in 2021. It found that vaccinated adults experienced significantly lower mortality, both from COVID-19 itself and from all causes combined.
Sharp reduction in severe COVID-19 deaths
The study analyzed data from 28 million French adults aged 18 to 59. Among those who received at least one dose of an mRNA vaccine, the risk of death from severe COVID-19 was 74 percent lower than among unvaccinated individuals.
Researchers attributed much of this benefit to strong protection against severe illness, which dramatically reduced the likelihood of fatal outcomes following infection.
Lower all-cause mortality observed
Beyond protection from COVID-19, vaccinated individuals also showed a 25 percent lower risk of death from all causes. Over the four-year follow-up period, 98,429 deaths were recorded among vaccinated participants, representing 0.4 percent of that group. By comparison, 32,662 deaths, or 0.6 percent, occurred among unvaccinated individuals.
The authors noted that reduced complications linked to long COVID may also help explain the overall decline in mortality among vaccinated adults.
No increase in deaths from other causes
Importantly, the study found no evidence of increased deaths from cancer, cardiovascular disease, accidental injuries, or any other major causes. In every category analyzed, mortality rates among vaccinated individuals were either similar to or lower than those seen in the unvaccinated population.
Based on these findings, the researchers concluded that a causal link between mRNA vaccination and excess long-term mortality now appears highly unlikely.
Study scope and limitations
The analysis was conducted by Epi-Phare, a scientific group overseen by the French medicines regulator and the national health insurance fund. It used data from the French National Health Data System, tracking 22.7 million vaccinated adults and 5.9 million unvaccinated individuals over a median follow-up of 45 months.
Participants were limited to those under 60 years old, meaning the results do not directly apply to older age groups, who face the highest risks from COVID-19.