Trump ultimatum raises tensions
U.S. President Donald Trump warned Monday that Iran could be taken out “in one night” if it failed to agree by 20:00 Washington time Tuesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway, through which roughly one-fifth of global energy shipments normally passes, has become a focal point of the escalating conflict.
Tehran threatened to target vessels in response to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, disrupting traffic and pushing oil prices sharply higher. Despite Washington’s pressure campaign, several countries have opted for direct diplomacy with Iran to secure safe passage for their ships.
Philippines secures assurances
The Philippines became the latest nation to announce an agreement with Tehran. Foreign Affairs Secretary Theresa Lazaro said Iranian officials promised “safe, unhindered and expeditious passage” for Philippine-flagged vessels after what she described as a productive phone conversation.
The arrangement is critical for Manila. The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the Middle East and declared a national energy emergency after fuel prices more than doubled following the outbreak of hostilities.
Regional diplomacy gains momentum
Pakistan confirmed on 28 March that Iran agreed to allow 20 of its ships through the strait. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar called the move a constructive gesture and emphasized dialogue as the only viable path forward.
India has also reported smooth passage for its tankers. Iran’s embassy in New Delhi stated that Indian vessels are “in safe hands,” while India’s foreign minister attributed the access to sustained diplomatic engagement.
China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, acknowledged that three of its vessels recently transited the strait after coordination with relevant parties. Vessel-tracking data indicate that shipments of sanctioned Iranian crude to China have continued despite the conflict.
Scope of guarantees remains unclear
Analysts caution that the details of these assurances are opaque. It is uncertain whether guarantees apply to all ships under a nation’s flag or only specific vessels. Questions also persist over whether any payments or conditions were attached to safe passage agreements.
Malaysia and Japan have reported successful crossings by some of their vessels, though officials have not clarified whether broader permissions exist. Many global tankers operate under flags of convenience such as Panama or the Marshall Islands, neither of which is known to have secured explicit guarantees.
Diplomatic progress, uncertain durability
Experts note that energy-dependent countries increasingly recognize the need to engage Tehran directly to safeguard supplies. However, the longevity of these arrangements remains uncertain. Military developments in the region and shifting political calculations could alter the status of the strait at any time.
While bilateral deals offer temporary relief for select nations, they do not resolve the wider instability surrounding one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.