Ukraine is currently facing two significant crises: an ongoing war with Russia and the instability of political support from the United States. As the conflict with Russia drags into its 30th month, the battlefield conditions are becoming increasingly dire. Simultaneously, the crucial backing from the US is growing more uncertain due to the evolving political landscape.
A delay of six months in US military aid has allowed Russian forces to make advances on the front lines. Ukrainian troops are now grappling to contain the incremental gains made by Russia’s better-equipped military. Experts forecast that the coming two or three months will be among the most challenging for Ukraine this year, as the nation strives to stabilize its defenses and recapture lost territory.
Political Dynamics and Their Consequences
The political climate in the US is complicating Ukraine’s situation further. Former President Donald Trump has named Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his vice-presidential candidate for the forthcoming election. Vance’s stance on prioritizing domestic issues over foreign conflicts mirrors Trump’s perspective. Trump has asserted that he would swiftly end the war if re-elected, though he has not provided specifics on how he would achieve this.
In Europe, Hungary’s pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is creating tensions within the European Union by engaging with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. These interactions have angered other EU leaders and added layers of complexity to the political support Ukraine depends on.
Current Battlefield Situation and Strategies
Currently, Russia controls 18% of Ukrainian territory, a result of Ukrainian defensive efforts pushing them out of half the land they initially seized following the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Despite not securing a significant battlefield victory since taking control of the eastern stronghold of Avdiivka in February, Russian forces are making advances in the northeastern border regions of Kharkiv, the eastern areas of Donetsk, and the southern region of Zaporizhzhia.
Ukraine has implemented an elastic defense strategy, relinquishing some territory to wear down Russian forces until Western supplies arrive at the front lines. Nevertheless, analysts caution that Russia could win a prolonged war of attrition unless Ukraine can execute a successful counteroffensive with an element of surprise. Meanwhile, Russia continues to launch missile attacks on rear areas, targeting civilian infrastructure and conducting airstrikes that have resulted in civilian casualties.
Infrastructure and Military Resources
Russia’s persistent missile and drone attacks have severely impacted Ukraine’s power infrastructure, destroying 80% of its thermal power and a third of its hydroelectric power. This destruction sets the stage for a difficult winter ahead for Ukraine. The nation urgently needs extensive air defenses to safeguard its vast territory, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stating that 25 Patriot air defense systems are necessary to adequately protect its airspace.
Ammunition supplies are gradually improving as new deliveries reach the front lines, reducing Ukraine’s artillery disadvantage. However, it will take time for Ukraine to fully restock its depleted reserves and prepare for a counteroffensive. Russia, meanwhile, is heavily investing in its defense capabilities to sustain its war efforts.
Fortifications, Conscription, and International Support
Russia’s strategy of demolishing towns and villages to deprive Ukrainians of defensive cover has led to widespread destruction. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s fortifications have been enhanced in recent months. Although Russia has made some progress along the 1,000-kilometer front line, its gains have been costly and lack significant breakthroughs.
In April, Ukraine expanded its military conscription to bolster its forces, despite ongoing challenges with training and equipment shortages. Fourteen brigades are still awaiting their promised Western arms. Positively, NATO countries have pledged to provide long-term security assistance and military training, including additional Stinger missiles and preparations to deliver the first F-16 warplanes donated by European nations.
Despite these efforts, President Zelenskyy has voiced his frustration, asserting that Ukraine cannot achieve victory unless the US removes its restrictions on using American weapons to target military sites within Russia. As Ukraine navigates these multifaceted challenges, the nation’s resilience and strategic choices in the coming months will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this extended conflict.