CagriSema Falls Short of Expectations
Shares of Novo Nordisk dropped sharply after late-stage clinical trial results for its next-generation weight-loss drug, CagriSema, failed to meet investor expectations. The Danish pharmaceutical company saw its stock fall 16.5% in Copenhagen, marking its lowest level since mid-2021.
CagriSema is a weekly injection combining cagrilintide, an amylin analogue, with semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic. The dual-hormone approach was designed to enhance weight reduction beyond semaglutide alone.
However, in a study involving 809 participants over 84 weeks, CagriSema achieved average weight loss of 23%, below the initially anticipated 25% and trailing Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide-based Zepbound, which posted 25.5% weight loss in comparable data.
Novo acknowledged that CagriSema did not meet its primary endpoint of demonstrating non-inferiority to tirzepatide on weight reduction after 84 weeks.
Market Reaction and Competitive Pressure
Analysts described the outcome as a significant disappointment. Some characterized the drug as less competitive than expected, particularly as an upgrade to semaglutide or as an alternative to Lilly’s leading therapy.
Novo’s stock decline extended a challenging period for the company. Over the past year, shares have fallen nearly 60%, while Eli Lilly’s stock rose more than 4% following the trial update.
Once Europe’s most valuable company on the back of booming obesity and diabetes drug sales, Novo has revised profit and revenue forecasts multiple times amid intensifying competition in the GLP-1 market.
Sales Outlook and Regulatory Path
Earlier this year, UBS reduced its peak sales forecast for Novo’s GLP-1 portfolio from $80 billion to $75 billion by 2032, citing earlier underwhelming data from CagriSema trials.
Despite the setback, Novo management defended the therapy. Chief Executive Mike Doustdar said the drug remains a strong candidate, emphasizing its position as the first amylin-based obesity treatment if approved. The company has already submitted CagriSema to U.S. regulators based on prior clinical evidence and is seeking approval later this year.
Novo also plans additional studies, including trials of higher dosing, to potentially demonstrate improved outcomes. The company is counting on both CagriSema and a newly launched oral version of Wegovy in the United States to regain competitive momentum.
Weight-Loss Market Intensifies
The obesity drug market has become one of the most competitive segments in pharmaceuticals, with GLP-1 and dual-hormone therapies driving investor interest. As companies race to deliver greater efficacy and more convenient delivery options, even small differences in clinical results can significantly influence market perception and valuation.
Whether CagriSema ultimately secures regulatory approval and meaningful commercial traction may depend on forthcoming data and how it positions itself against established rivals in a rapidly expanding global market.