Nowruz and Eid marked under expanding conflict
Israel launched airstrikes on Tehran on Friday as Iranians marked Nowruz, the Persian New Year, with the war continuing to ripple through global markets and raise the risk of wider regional escalation. Reports from activists described strikes around the Iranian capital, while Iran continued missile and drone attacks that triggered sirens across northern Israel.
In the United Arab Emirates, heavy explosions were reported in Dubai early Friday as air defenses intercepted incoming fire during Eid al-Fitr observances. The exchange followed a volatile day in which Israel said it would pause additional strikes on a key offshore gas field after a request from U.S. President Donald Trump, even as Iran intensified attacks on energy infrastructure around the Gulf.
Energy shock centers on the Strait of Hormuz
Fuel markets have remained under acute pressure due to Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor used to move roughly a fifth of the world’s oil. Prices have reacted sharply to the prospect of prolonged disruption, with Brent crude briefly topping $119 a barrel, up more than 60% since the war began. European benchmark gas prices also climbed and have roughly doubled over the past month.
Iran has signaled it will keep pressure on shipping and regional energy assets, amplifying concerns among import-dependent economies and adding new inflation risks at a time when many central banks are weighing how to respond to fresh energy-driven price spikes.
Gulf facilities report damage and export losses
Gulf states reported a string of attacks and disruptions affecting oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Qatar said missile strikes caused extensive damage at the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility, cutting exports by about 17% and implying roughly $20 billion in lost annual revenue. Officials said repairs could take up to five years.
Saudi Arabia reported its SAMREF refinery in Yanbu was hit, including along routes intended to move oil west toward the Red Sea as an alternative to Hormuz. Authorities in Kuwait and Abu Dhabi also reported strikes affecting refineries and gas operations. Separately, incidents involving ships off the coasts of the UAE and Qatar highlighted growing risks for maritime traffic in the region.
Israel claims major degradation of Iranian capabilities
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran’s military capabilities have been severely hit, citing weakened air defenses and damage to naval and air assets. He also said Iran no longer has the ability to enrich uranium or manufacture ballistic missiles, though no evidence was presented and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium was described as still in-country.
U.S. officials said operations have expanded deeper into Iranian territory, including strikes on underground storage sites and actions targeting Iranian activity around the strait. Trump said he is not deploying ground troops to Iran, while warning Iran against further attacks on Qatar’s energy infrastructure.
U.N. Security Council discusses regional spillover
The U.N. Security Council held an urgent closed meeting as Gulf countries stressed the need for Iran to halt attacks on them. The diplomatic push comes as regional governments face rising domestic pressure tied to energy disruptions and security concerns, including heightened scrutiny of alleged networks operating inside Gulf states.
Casualties rise as war enters a new phase
Reported fatalities have continued to climb across multiple fronts. Iran has recorded more than 1,300 deaths, while fighting involving Hezbollah in Lebanon has displaced more than 1 million people and caused more than 1,000 deaths, according to Lebanese authorities. Israel has reported 15 deaths from Iranian missile fire, alongside additional reported deaths in the West Bank. U.S. forces have reported at least 13 deaths.
With energy infrastructure increasingly in the line of fire and shipping routes under strain, the trajectory of the conflict is becoming as much an economic story as a military one, with oil, gas, and logistics disruptions shaping global risk sentiment day by day.