With India’s national elections on the horizon, the opposition alliance, initially formed to oust Prime Minister Narendra Modi, finds itself in disarray. Once a robust coalition of over two dozen parties, internal conflicts, ideological differences, and political defections have fractured the unity, according to analysts.
Headed by the Indian National Congress, the alliance aimed to rival Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), especially after Modi’s recent popularity surge following the Ayodhya Hindu temple inauguration. However, internal strife has led key members to contest elections independently, weakening the alliance’s stance.
Negotiations over seat allocations have stalled primarily due to Congress’ insistence on contesting the majority of seats, even in regions where its support is lacking. Consequently, significant partners in West Bengal and Punjab have declared plans to go solo in the elections.
Compounding the alliance’s challenges is the unexpected defection of Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s chief minister and a crucial opposition figure, to Modi’s BJP. Analysts believe that Modi’s party has exploited distrust within the opposition, orchestrating defections to undermine the alliance’s strength.
The opposition’s inability to present a united front and articulate a compelling counter-narrative against Modi has bolstered his prospects for a third term. Meanwhile, the Congress party, grappling with internal strife and struggling to connect with voters, secured only 52 seats in the previous election.
Modi’s portrayal as an outsider challenging the established political elite, particularly appealing to India’s Hindu majority, has been instrumental in his popularity. Despite criticism for mixing religion with politics, Modi’s strategy resonates with voters, consolidating his support base.
However, the opposition alleges biased targeting by federal agencies, accusing them of politically motivated investigations against alliance leaders while dropping probes against BJP defectors. Opposition lawmakers argue that such actions undermine democratic principles.
Nevertheless, the opposition’s failure to address key issues like unemployment and economic discontent has left voters largely unmoved. Despite India’s growing economy, youth unemployment remains a significant concern, posing a challenge for Modi’s government.
With no coherent opposition narrative and little sign of widespread economic discontent, analysts predict Modi is well-placed to secure another term comfortably. As India prepares for the elections, the fractured state of the opposition alliance underscores the formidable challenge Modi’s rivals face in their bid to unseat him.