Rising Inactivity Rates Among Working-Age Population
By the end of the decade, nearly one in 12 working-age individuals in the UK could be classified as economically inactive due to illness, according to official projections released by the Department for Work & Pensions (DWP). The latest estimates suggest that 3.62 million people may fall into this category by 2030, marking a sharp 61% increase from 2.25 million in 2019.
The figures, published as part of the Keep Britain Working review, are based on trends observed over the past five years and indicate a growing crisis in workforce participation due to long-term health conditions.
Key Trends in Economic Inactivity
Economic inactivity refers to individuals aged 16 to 64 who are not employed and are not actively seeking work. Unlike unemployment, where individuals are actively searching for jobs, economically inactive individuals have not looked for work in the past four weeks or are unavailable to start within the next two weeks.
According to the data:
- The proportion of people economically inactive due to illness stood at 5.4% in 2019 but could rise to 8.0% by 2030.
- Among younger workers aged 16 to 34, economic inactivity due to sickness has climbed from 2.7% in 2015 to 4.6% in 2024.
- The number of individuals aged 16 to 34 with a work-limiting mental health condition has more than doubled, rising from 416,086 in 2015 to 949,469 in 2024.
- The number of individuals with autism or learning difficulties who are economically inactive has more than tripled for 16 to 34-year-olds, from 150,121 in 2015 to 511,734 in 2024.
Government’s Response and Welfare Reforms
Amid these alarming figures, the UK government has announced sweeping welfare reforms, calling the current benefits system “broken.” Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer emphasized that millions, particularly young people, have been “trapped out of work” by systemic failures.
Despite the growing health-related economic inactivity, the proportion of the workforce inactive for other reasons—such as education, caregiving, or early retirement—is expected to decline from 15.3% in 2019 to 12.1% by 2030.
Health and Employment Trends
Interestingly, while economic inactivity due to sickness is rising, an increasing percentage of individuals with health conditions remain employed:
- The proportion of the workforce employed despite having a work-limiting health condition rose from 6.4% in 2015 to 9.5% in 2024.
- Meanwhile, the share of the workforce economically inactive due to sickness but without a work-limiting condition has remained stable at 0.3%.
Uncertain Future for Workforce Participation
The DWP report stresses that these figures are projections rather than definitive forecasts, meaning they represent potential outcomes if current trends persist. However, the steady rise in economic inactivity due to health concerns signals a need for urgent policy intervention.